Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
